This offseason, the NFL's Competition Committee has made considerable changes to the kickoff.
The new set of rules comes from the XFL, who was able to increase return rate and decrease the number of injuries on their kickoffs.
Last season, just 21.8% of kickoffs were returned in the NFL, down tremendously from the 80% in 2010. And for those kicks that were returned, they had a considerable rate of high-speed collision and injury.
This move comes in an effort to reduce injury risk and potentially reemphasize the minimally impactful kicking game.
So, how will NFL kickoffs look?
Kicking team Setup
Normal kicks will still take place from the 35 yard line.
There will be 5 players to the kicker's right and left. These 10 players cannot move until the ball hits the ground, the returning player, or lands in the 'landing zone,' which is the area between the goalline and the 20 yard line. The kicker cannot cross the 50 yard line until the ball touches the ground or player, so they can move earlier if desired.
Receiving team Setup
At least 9 players must line up in the 'setup zone' between the 35 and 40 yard line. The players in the setup zone may not move until the ball has hit the ground, a player in the landing zone, or the endzone.
A maximum of 2 returners are allowed in the landing zone and they can move at any point.
After the kick
If the kick lands short of the landing zone, it will be treated as a kick that landed out of bounds, blowing the play dead and spotting the ball at the 40 yard line.
If the kick lands in the landing zone, it must be returned.
If the kick lands in the endzone, it can be returned or downed, after which it would be spotted at the 30 yard line.
Other notable changes
In an effort to increase returns, no fair catches are allowed.
Onside kicks are only allowed in the 4th quarter and when the team is trailing. The team must also declare to the officials that they will be attempting an onside kick. If the onside kick goes beyond the setup zone, the kicking team will be penalized.
Penalties will not change the landing zone. Only the spot of the kickoff will be adjusted. Penalties on scoring plays do not carry over and will be applied to the 'Try.' (point after or two point conversion attempt.)
Analysis
If the sole intention of the rule change is to increase return rate, it will succeed. As aforementioned, the NFL had just a 21.8% kickoff return rate last season. In stark contrast, the XFL had a 97% rate last season. While the return yardage averages are similar at 23 and 21.8 respectively, the return rate will increase.
As far as injuries, the move is likely to yield similar gains. In alignment with the decrease in kickoff return rate, concussions sustained on kickoffs dropped substantially from 20 to 8 percent from 2022 to 2023. This is thanks to the overall decrease in high-speed collisions as the NFL's Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Allen Sills, says here. With the kicking and receiving team now starting close together, the average severity of hits will decline considerably.
This move also adds an interesting layer of complexity for fans and coaches alike.
Some coaches have made moves in response: the Steelers signed return specialist Cordarrelle Patterson, the Chiefs are experimenting with non-kickers kicking the ball, and team's have tried a number of returners given the new approach.
From an entertainment perspective, results will be mixed.
Already boring, onside kicks are losing the limited excitement that remained. An exciting season typically falls in the 10-15% recovery range with 2017 leading the decade at 21.4% and 2020 trailing at 4.4%. Last season, just 3 of the 56 onside kicks were recovered.
Once the novelty of the new kickoff system wears off, it could prove underwhelming. The XFL had lower yardage returns on average and throughout the season, had just 1 kickoff returned for a touchdown compared to the NFL's 4. Not to say things will be perfectly similar when implemented in the NFL, but the XFL is a helpful guideline in each facet of this analysis.
Strategy will look different and there will certainly be some hiccups, adding some welcomed complexity this season. On the whole, though, this will impact the lives of special team's coaches but have minimal impact on the average football watching experience.
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