The most exciting time of the fantasy football season has returned. With drafts occurring over the next two weeks, here are some keys to your draft as well as players to consider drafting by position.
First, some proven strategies to keep in mind:
Target RBs early
An intriguing wide receiver target like Tyreek Hill or CeeDee Lamb may provide exciting value if taken late enough. However, when considering the entire draft, it is more important to target running backs early on, particularly in the first 4-5 rounds. While a number of wide receivers could see acceptable volume (targets) on a given NFL team, running back volume is far more sparse. It is vital you draft a group of 2-3 starting running backs who will get unwavering volume and are the clear RB1 on their team. Because the average rush play is about 4 yards, 20+ carries or high touchdown upside is imperative for your team's success. In contrast, there are upward of 50 viable receivers across the league. The average pass play was 17.4 yards in 2023 and because team's passing attacks tend to be far more spread out, broadening the number of viable options for fantasy.
Draft a Tight End
Given how tight ends are often distributed, with one obvious top tier and then a considerable gap, many opt for a pair of late round tight ends assuming something will work out. Tight end usage is less certain than running backs or receivers because of their various tasks, namely blocking, within an offense. Because they run fewer downfield routes, only a select few can truly be relied upon to produce consistently. As a result, it is worth spending a 4-5th round pick on a tier 1 tight end. Because they will occupy a lineup spot just as valuable as any other player, they are worth the draft capital.
Manage Risk in First 2 Rounds
The path to a catastrophic fantasy finish is messing up the first 2 rounds. As long as your top 2 picks finish within a few spots of Average Draft Position (ADP), you will likely be somewhere near .500. Even if you do not hit on the RB1 or WR1, a mistake like Garret Wilson last year, for instance, could set you back considerably.
Later in drafts, you should prioritize upside. In round 14, for instance, it would make more sense to draft a rookie WR with an up and coming QB and exciting potential for targets versus a proven veteran who is consistent but indefinitely buried on their team's depth chart. Also, always chose defense and kickers with your final two picks. You should prioritize building out the bench with upside until then.
Do not reach on a QB
In most drafts, the first Quarterback off the board, usually Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, begins a run on QBs. These runs, which usually involve another 3-5 QBs coming off the board in the following 2 rounds, provide great value elsewhere and as long as you are drafting for upside late in drafts, will put your team in a good position.
When drafting Quarterbacks, pay attention to team needs, too. If you are at pick 10 and need a Quarterback but the next teams at picks 11 and 12 do not, you could afford to take a RB or WR to ensure they do not take them, assuming your QB will remain available.
Now, for some players to target. While these are all attractive players at ADP, there is nearly always a value too rich. For players I don't like, too, they could, at times, become intriguing should they fall far enough.
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks to target:
Kyler Murray
After returning from injury last year and playing 8 games, Murray is sure to take a big step forward this season. The Cardinals added WR Marvin Harrison Jr via the #4 pick in the draft and have a fully healthy and versatile offense. The team around him has improved since new head coach, Rich Gannon, took over and features an exciting group of skill position players like TE Trey McBride, WR Michael Wilson, and consistent RB James Conner. Murray also has impressive rushing ability, averaging 30 yards per game last season. When fully healthy in 2019 and 2020, he was averaging 40-45 which in fantasy football, is very consequential.
Jayden Daniels
A dominant rushing quarterback, rookie Jayden Daniels is undoubtedly worth a bench stash at QB12. Washington has an improved offense and importantly, hired OC Kliff Kingsbury who engineered Kyler Murray's 2020 QB2 finish. Daniels was announced the Commanders' starter on Monday and, like Murray, has underrated talent around him. Most notably, he as a strong backfield and underrated WR1 in Terry McLaurin. Among rookie QBs, Daniels was already one of the most pro-ready and this will be obvious come week 1. Combine this with his high rushing ceiling and you have a potential top 10 fantasy finisher.
Really, you should target a Quarterback with rushing upside. I would include names like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson if not for their QB2 and 4 ADP. While someone like Jordan Love provides a nice balance of consistency, upside, and value at just QB10, I am more interested in the boldness that comes with a rushing QB. Because rushing yards are so much more valuable than passing, it is a necessary feature in a top 3 QB finisher.
Quarterbacks to avoid:
Joe Burrow
At QB9, Burrow's value is a bit rich. While he is an incredible talent and among the best young Quarterbacks in the NFL, fantasy football is not the same. While the limited rushing upside is a key concern, so is his recent injury history. He missed 8 games last season following a significant wrist injury (on his throwing arm) and has also suffered a torn ACL, MCL, meniscus, dislocated finger, and calf strain since entering the league in 2020. While he could finish as one of the top QBs in the AFC, he is not on the same level as Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in fantasy or otherwise.
Trevor Lawrence
A fellow #1 overall pick like Burrow, Lawrence has seen less consistent success and there is little to suggest things are headed in the right direction. In the offseason, he signed an absurd 5-year, $275m extension. While the combination of his size and mobility appear strong on paper, he has limited big play ability, crumbles in clutch moments, and aside from Travis Etienne, has few explosive weapons. With a competitive division, too, he is unlikely to breakout as some anticipate.
Running Backs
Running backs to Target:
Breece Hall
Hall should be the #1 overall pick in 2024 fantasy football. After coming off a torn ACL, he regained his role as the Jets focal playmaker and showed few signs of reduced explosiveness. After putting up historic numbers before the injury in 2022, he finished 2023 as the RB7 despite an alarmingly inconsistent Jets offense. With Aaron Rodgers healthy and Hall at 100%, expect a boom.
James Cook
At 317, the Bills have the second most vacated targets from 2023 to 2024, meaning they lost players who combined for 317 targets last season. Notably, with the absence of Stefon Diggs, the Bills offense must transform. Cook had a breakout year in 2023. While he struggled to find the endzone thanks to Josh Allen's rushing ability and the team's pass-heavy approach, the team will have no option but to lean on Cook in 2023. He has gotten better with each season in the league and will have an increased workload.
Kyren Williams
The ultimate breakout of 2023, Kyren Williams finished as the RB4 despite playing just 12 games. As the focal point of the Rams surprisingly effective offense, he took over and left no questions heading into 2024. While some worry about the Rams' decision to draft rookie RB, Blake Corum, in the 3rd round, he is there simply to keep Williams healthy. Few running backs have such a defined role as Williams. While he is not the most explosive running back, he gets both volume and results.
Uncertain RB1 groups:
Proceed with caution
The following running backs are, on paper, the lead back on their team. For different reasons, I would be cautious drafting some of them, though.
Devin Singletary: At RB29, Singletary is among the cheapest RB1s in fantasy football. He is coming off a career year in Houston, despite falling short of 1,000 rushing yards. He is the undisputed lead back in New York and with the Giants' offseason focus on the O-Line and a healthy Daniel Jones, things could trend upward even further. Still, there are various moving pieces and it is rare that we see the best from a running back entering their 6th season in the league.
Zack Moss: After a couple subpar seasons in Buffalo, Moss emerged last season with the Colts in light of Jonathan Taylor's extensive absence. With a relatively low profile deal, totaling $4m/year and the presence of explosive 2nd year RB, Chase Brown, Moss may not be the reliable fantasy starter many expect.
Zamir White: After amassing just 20 carries across the first 13 weeks of the season, White took over as the lead back in Las Vegas and earned 84 carries in the final 4 weeks of the season. He averaged in the 4 yards per carry range and is the RB1 in what is an improving offense. Having never had a full workload for an entire season and maintaining limited touchdown upside, he may be a bit rich at RB23. Still, if you truly believe in the talent, White could be worth a look.
Ezekiel Elliott: Particularly in PPR formats, Zeke is among the most intriguing on the list. With no experienced competition in the new-look Dallas backfield, Zeke will have some considerable volume on one of the league's best offenses. An underrated receiving back, he will rack up some extra points per reception and likely be favored in rushing situations within the redzone.
Running Backs to avoid:
Austin Ekeler
A fantasy legend in prior seasons, Ekeler fell off considerably in 2023. He lacked the explosiveness that made him such a weapon in prior seasons and now, is no longer the featured back. He will be competing with Brian Robinson Jr, who had a strong 2023 campaign, and is now featured in an offense less likely to checkdown to running backs.
Saquon Barkley
A hot pick in 2024, Barkley will underperform these high expectations. Currently the RB5, Barkley has consistently trended downward in terms of efficiency and will struggle to score necessary touchdowns after joining the strong Philidelphia backfield. Given Jalen Hurts tendency to run in anything within 5 yards, Barkley will struggle to generate the necessary redzone opportunities required for fantasy consistency.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Despite dominating rushing volume, Stevenson will struggle to put up RB2 numbers in what will be a poor New England offense. With Antonio Gibson now cutting into his receiving work, which kept him relevant from 2021-2023, Stevenson has limited upside in 2024 despite his tenacity and strong interior rushing ability.
Wide Receiver:
Wide Receivers to target:
Garrett Wilson
Last season appeared to be an obvious breakout opportunity for Jets' Garrett Wilson. Just minutes into the 2023-24 season, though, Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn achilles, tearing Wilson's value along with it. 2024-25 looks so promising for all the same reasons. Wilson is one of the most talented receivers in the league and Aaron Rodgers has a history of capitalizing on such facts. He has been Quarterback to many top 5 fantasy WR finishers and now has a receiver who is dangerous in every area of the field. Each of the 6 receivers Aaron Rodgers has ever played with and given 140+ targets in a season has finished, at worst, as the WR3 overall in fantasy. With very limited competition for targets, I could see a historic season for Wilson.
George Pickens
While he comes with some risk, Pickens is the clear WR1 in Pittsburgh and has an impressive downfield skillset. Coming off 1,100 yards behind inconsistent QB play, he may have an upgrade in either Russel Wilson or Justin Fields. They have each had disappointing preseasons but I believe when at full capacity, can provide their receivers with more upside then could Kenny Pickett. While he was very boom or bust last season, the departure of Dionate Johnson frees up 87 targets and will require that Pickens diversify his skillset and become a weapon in shorter situations, excelling as he can after the catch.
Davante Adams
Despite being one of the greatest receivers of this generation, Adams has been overlooked this season thanks to the Raiders' uncertainty at Quarterback. Whether it is Aidan O'Connell or Gardner Minshew (hopefully O'Connell,) it is quite an upgrade from Jimmy Garoppolo. Adams can handle volume with some incredible target numbers while still providing necessary touchdown upside and big play ability. With the Raiders trending upward and the offense continuing to lean on Adams, he is a notably safe pick at WR17.
Update: Gardner Minshew was named the Raiders starting QB. I am considerably less excited by Adams but he will get plenty of volume, good for PPR formats.
Cooper Kupp
In 2021, Kupp had the greatest fantasy season ever by a receiver. With the emergence of Puka Nacua combined with the Rams' Super Bowl hangover and various injuries, Kupp has gone under the radar. A 3rd-5th round pick in many drafts, he is highly valuable and may return as Stafford's top target. His unmatched route running ability and connection with Stafford will resume this season.
DK Metcalf
One of the most physically imposing receivers in the league, Metcalf provides explosive upside in 2024-25 fantasy. This offseason, the team brought in former University of Washington OC, Ryan Grubb, who led one of the most impressive passing attacks over the last 2 seasons. QB Geno Smith has shown his ability to throw the deep ball and with two other receivers, Tyler Lockett and Jaxson Smith-Njigba, complimenting Metcalf's skillset well, he could have some explosive games this season.
Wide receivers to avoid:
Chris Olave
2023 seemed like an obvious breakout opportunity for Chris Olave. With a new Quarterback who likes to throw the deep ball and an impressive rookie season, he seemed like a no-brainer. After falling short of expectations in 2023, 2024 does not look much better given New Orlean's offensive outlook. Their league-worst offensive line only took more hits and as many predicted, 2023 proved that Carr is not the guy to lead them to the promise land.
Jaylen Waddle
While Waddle is among the most explosive receivers in the NFL, though he is a drop of water in a strange yet explosive Dolphins offense. While Tyreek Hill is sure to get his volume and make a number of highlight reel plays, the rest of the Dolphins playmakers are competing with one another. Despite Hill's absence last year, Waddle was unable to capitalize, battled some injury himself, and finished 2023 just over 1,000 yards. The emergence of De'Von Achane and the team's league-low depth of target leaves a lot of reliance comes in the hands of playmakers. Waddle will get some opportunities but not to the degree many anticipate.
Keenan Allen
Coming off a career year, the experienced Allen is now competing for targets to a degree unseen in his 10 year career. While Caleb Williams is the real deal, Allen will now battle 2023 breakout, DJ Moore, and #9 overall pick, Rome Odunze, for targets. His role is clearly defined and that will consist of his classic magical footwork and some mid-yardage routes.
Stefon Diggs
Coming from Buffalo via trade this offseason, Diggs is now the WR3 on his team. Behind Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Diggs will struggle to get adequate volume while, along the way, likely complaining. He is a great receiver but should Stroud not target him early in the season, it will begin a downward spiral, even if the team is winning. Diggs and second year WR Tank Dell are being drafted very close together at WR29 and WR26 respectively. Given Dell was handpicked by Stroud in last year's draft and showed immense chemistry last season, I know where I would lean.
Hollywood Brown
Patrick Mahomes can make anyone fantasy relevant but with a late preseason injury and other younger receivers with similar skillsets, Brown should be avoided. He dislocated his collarbone in his one snap in preseason and now faces target competition from first round pick and fastest player ever at the combine, Xavier Worthy, who emerged in the team's 2nd preseason game and 2nd year WR Rashee Rice who led Chief's receivers in passing yards last season.
Brandon Aiyuk
Among trade talks, proceed with caution on Brandon Aiyuk. A 2nd-3rd round pick in fantasy, he may not even play for the Niners next season and is being drafted at his peak. As the WR10 last season, Aiyuk put up impressive late season numbers, including 1,342 yards on the season. We have likely seen the peak of Aiyuk and his QB, Brock Purdy, in this Niners offense or elsewhere, though.
Tight Ends:
Tight Ends to target:
Trey McBride
From week 8 onward, McBride was the most targeted tight end in the NFL. Thanks to Kyler Murray's Week 11 return from injury, he came onto the scene in what was is an improving Cardinals offense. McBride put up 860 yards despite catching passes from Clayton Tune at various points last season. Murray both showed his own abilities and also his trust in McBride, especially downfield.
Jake Ferguson
With 23, Ferguson led all tight ends in redzone targets last season. While he is less of a big play guy, he has proven to be one of Dak Prescott's most reliable targets. He puts up impressive numbers after contact and will, once again, have no shortage of opportunities, likely finishing the season with well over 100 targets. If you want a safe tight end, he is your guy.
Dalton Kincaid
With the Bills huge opening in targets, Kincaid is sure to take the next step after an impressive rookie campaign. Averaging just under 6 targets per game, he put up 65+ yards in 6 games, including a breakout against the Begnals where he recorded 10 catches. He is extremely athletic given his 6'4, 240lbs stature and will be imperative in a passing offense who will, as they have in recent seasons, compete in a number of shootouts.
As far as other tight ends, I would stick to the mold of someone athletic with a strong Quarterback, or at least one that likes them, and some sense of TD upside. Some other names would include David Njoku, Brock Bowers, and Cole Kmet.
The Do Not Draft list would include just the opposite. Anyone in a run-heavy offense without a clearly defined role is a considerable risk. You cannot afford to wait until the late rounds to take a wild shot at a tight end.
Sleepers to consider:
Ladd McConkey
As aforementioned, the Bills freed up a lot of targets this offseason. The only team with more? The Chargers. The team used an early 2nd round pick on McConkey to assist in filling that void. They made few other movements in free agency and the draft under the team's new management. With a new coaching staff but the same elite Quarterback, the ball must go somewhere. McConkey is dangerous after the catch and could be a reliable player for Justin Herbert over the middle. In PPR formats, McConkey is certainly worth a look as he could get a lot of volume from the slot, somewhat like Hunter Renfrow in his 103 reception 2021 breakout campaign.
Jerome Ford
Currently the RB38, Ford is slated to start the season as the Browns lead running back. In Nick Chubb's absence last season, Ford averaged double digit points and was involved in both the running and passing game. Prior to Deshaun Watson's injury in November last season, Ford was more productive through the air and in scoring, adding further confidence. With Chubb's uncertain return timetable after last season's devastating knee injury, Ford is a no-brainer.
Chase Brown
Currently the RB36, Chase Brown could play himself into a considerable workload. After the offseason departure of Joe Mixon, the Bengals filled their RB void with Zack Moss. While Moss, 26, had some success in his lone season with Indianapolis, he signed a small deal among other free agent RBs and is in a RB1 battle with the 2nd year Brown. Brown is explosive and has proven his pass protection ability, gaining praise from coaches. With big play ability, a relatively open backfield, and greater involvement in passing downs, Brown has boom potential.
Romeo Doubs
The Packers have a plethora of strong receivers. While target share competition will persist throughout the season, Jordan Love trusts no WR more than WR54, Romeo Doubs. In particular, he is a major redzone target, providing some much needed touchdown upside. He is a big body, great in contested catch situations, and the lead receiver in an up and coming offense. If you would like some more risk, Christian Watson is another way to get a share of the Packers offense. If fully healthy, he could provide some huge play upside with the improving Jordan Love. At WR38, he could be worth a look, too.
Rico Dowdle
The cheapest potential RB1 in fantasy football, Dowdle is certainly more of a value play than upside play at RB44. While he remains in competition with Ezekiel Elliott, Elliott is nearing 30 years old, exiting the explosive prime of most running backs. Dowdle has limited experience as a starter with few convincing stats. While volume may begin split, Dowdle is worth a late round bench stash given his potential role in one of the league's best offenses.
Diontae Johnson
The WR34, Johnson is the Panthers clear WR1. New head coach Dave Canales has praised Johnson extensively and will use Johnson in a number of roles, asking, in relation to the team's offensive approach, "where's Diontae at?" Johnson, 28, has had the 7th most targets in the NFL over the last 5 seasons, more than the likes of DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans. Now, he is the focal point of his offense and can finally show the league how good he could be with adequate volume.
Jaylen Warren
With his big play ability, Warren is an excessively trendy breakout pick, but for good reason. In limited action and constant competition with Najee Harris, Warren put up over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns last season. On the downside, Warren has had limited redzone work and may struggle given the new offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith's, approach to the split backfield. The upside, though, should Harris be phased out, is similar to that of Austin Ekeler in 2019 or Jahmyr Gibbs in 2023.
Update: Jaylen Warren tweaked his hamstring in the team's 2nd preseason game. Proceed with caution given his relatively high required draft capital and the potentially lingering nature of hamstring strains. Najee Harris provides an interesting value at RB21.
Khalil Shakir
A 2022 5th round pick, Shakir took a big step forward last season. With the Bills freeing up a number of targets, he has an exciting opportunity this season. After totaling just 120 yards in his rookie season, Shakir made a jump up to 611 yards and doubling his target total to 45, despite competing with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis for targets in 2023. Shakir's 15.7 yards per catch last season ranked higher than big-play receivers like Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, and Deebo Samuel. At WR58, he is a late round pick and should undoubtedly be a bench stash this season.
If I could only chose two of these, it would be Chase Brown and Khalil Shakir due to their low required draft capital and high potential involvement in elite offenses.
Before your draft, lets review a few things.
Make sure to consider value while drafting. For every player, there is a draft position which they are both intriguing and overvalued.
Do not just fill out your lineup, drafting starters only. Even if you have already selected 2 running backs and do not yet have a Quarterback, QB may not be the way to go. If an immense value at RB pops up and you are confident in your research, stick with it and make the pick, even if they will start the season on your bench. Depth is massive.
In late rounds, it is imperative that you target upside. While the first few rounds should be relatively controlled, final rounds should involve some controlled risk taking. Because the waiver wire will always have replacements likely to provide some sort of floor, you can afford to use a couple picks taking some informed shots.
Otherwise, enjoy your draft and appreciate the fact that football is around the corner!
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