Without fail, the NFL offseason is full of rampant speculation, predictions, and delusion.
At the forefront, Quarterbacks most often command the debates. Being the highest-paid and most crucial players on the field, expectations are high and opinions are diverse.
Below are 3 Quarterbacks who will outshine present expectations from the media and fans, leading their team to greater success than anticipated.
I have included PFF QB rankings, which rank each starting Quarterback, but also use my own discretion to judge how Quarterbacks are generally perceived.
1. Kyler Murray, Cardinals
PFF Rank: 17
The 2019 #1 overall pick has been under scrutiny for some time now.
Following his massive 5 year contract extension in 2022, Murray was under the microscope. He was seen unfit to be a leader, uncommitted to his huge role as QB, and in turn, was criticized at every misstep on the field.
After coming off a torn ACL and playing in 8 games in 2023-24, Murray now has an improved supporting cast, competent coaching, and a renewed focus.
In 2020, he played at a near-MVP level, amassing 3,971 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, and an additional 819 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground.
After improving his accuracy and decreasing his reliance on the run, 2021 was similarly successful but was cut short due to an ankle injury, setting him into an uncertain cycle that has persisted until this offseason.
Murray battled a hamstring injury in 2022, an ACL tear later in the same season, and a carousel of coaches and players, especially those particularly relevant to the Quarterback.
While a bet on Murray is largely a bet on his health, the 2020 and 2021 versions of Murray make that gamble worthwhile. For a number of reasons, 2023-24 will signal a tone shift on Murray and the Cardinals.
In February of last year, the Cardinals hired Head Coach Jonathan Gannon after they moved on from 'offensive guru,' Kliff Kingsbury. While Kingsbury did an underrated job at catering the offense to Murray's skillset, the Cardinals are an improved team with Gannon. His focus on communication and accountability are a stark contrast from that of Kingsbury and are imperative to a winning culture.
While he is a defensive minded coach, he has reaffirmed his trust in Murray and works closely alongside offensive coordinator and playcaller Drew Petzing. Petzing's diverse spread offense and run-first approach takes some pressure of Murray, boding well for his health and overall success under center. Murray said that Petzing wants to be "as versatile as possible" as a playcaller, leading to uncertain defenses and an in turn, an excited Murray.
The team did lose Murray's top target, DeAndre Hopkins, shortly after the coaching hires, but his supporting cast is as exciting as ever.
Young tight end, Trey McBride, emerged last season as an impressively athletic security blanket for Murray. Even more significantly, the Cardinals used the 4th overall selection in the 2024 draft on Marvin Harrison Jr, one of the league's most exciting receiver prospects in years.
Combining Murray's impressive athletic abilities with a more clear coaching vision, young and exciting skill position players, and low expectations about himself and his team will make for an, at least, entertaining season.
With Murray fully healthy and a chip on his shoulder, 2024 could greatly exceed expectations.
Prediction: Cardinals 11-6
2. Will Levis, Titans
PFF Rank: 28
Will Levis started his NFL career off with a bang, throwing 4 touchdowns in his first NFL start in Week 8 of last season.
Among the young tier of AFC South quarterbacks, however, he is overlooked.
He is rarely discussed in the top young QB conversations thanks to his limited sample size and the seemingly unexciting Tennessee market.
From the time he was drafted, even, Levis was seen as a likely bust candidate with an ego issue.
He has elite arm talent and the ability to throw the ball downfield with what seems like the flick of his wrist. His underrated mobility and unbroken desire to win fits the mold for a successful modern day Quarterback.
Importantly, a tremendous culture change occurred in Tennessee this offseason. The team moved on from long time head coach, Mike Vrabel, in favor of the pass-heavy former Bengals OC, Brian Callahan. While Levis took the starting job and showed promise under Vrabel, the coaching change will take Levis and the offense to the next level.
In free agency, too, the Titans built around Levis. They added WR Calvin Ridley, dropping an impressive $50m in guaranteed money to secure him. They also signed former Bengal Tyler Boyd, solidifying the slot and assembling the most complete receiving trio in the league when paired with DeAndre Hopkins.
The Titans have also had a fury of activity on the other side of the ball. A big acquisition like that of L'jarius Sneed may not directly impact Levis' play but it does indicate a remarkable amount of trust. As GM Ran Carthon said in an interview, the Titans would not go out and make such a high profile trade like that if they did not fully believe Levis could bring the Titans result, and soon.
With an impressive physical skillset, offensively focused team, widespread trust, and shockingly low expectations among national media, Levis and the Titans will catch a lot of people off guard this season.
Prediction: Titans 10-7
3. Aidan O'Connell, Raiders
PFF Rank: 30
While the Raiders QB position has been a mess for years, O'Connell provides an exciting alternative. The 2023 4th round pick stepped up following the injury to then starter, Jimmy Garappolo.
While it will not take much for him to outshine expectations given he is in a Quarterback battle with Gardner Minshew, O'Connell is an intriguing QB prospect.
His 6'3 210lb stature may appear unathletic at first, but he has underrated pocket movement and importantly, a tendency to get rid of the ball quickly.
In typical Raider fashion, O'Connell was at the helm of a number of late game heroics in his 11 starts last season. Despite his youth, he showed impressive ability to manage the game and make some impressively deep downfield throws. He threw for 235+ yards on 6 occasions and amassed a 12-7 TD-INT ratio.
While they finished 2023 8-9, a bet on O'Connell is also a bet on the Raiders. The team opted to keep last season's interim Head Coach, Antonio Pierce, who sparked the team's 5-4 finish following his induction. This included a win over the Chiefs and a renewed focus and drive throughout the organization.
O'Connell will (probably) be throwing to one of the league's best receivers in Davante Adams as well as the team's first round pick, TE Brock Bowers. With WR2 Jakobi Meyers fully healthy and 2nd year speedster Tre Tucker likely to take on a larger role, the team has a diverse range of playmakers who are especially effective downfield.
Being a 3rd round, 2nd year QB, O'Connell is rarely discussed. While many would rather enamor over Gardner Minshew's mustache then discuss the ongoing QB battle, O'Connell will emerge from a football perspective. He has the intangible traits to become far more of a household name come this time next year.
Prediction: Raiders: 9-8
Each of these Quarterbacks will outshine expectations in 2024 for different reasons. What is true universally, though, is that an indescribable amount contributes to a Quarterback's success. Still, the media's perception of Quarterbacks is often based on small sample sizes or single events. As a result, these QB surprises are both exciting and inevitable.
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